Peace in Ukraine: What Europe Can Do Without US Support.

Britain and France Help Ukraine Develop Peace Plan

The governments of Great Britain and France, together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, are working on a plan to end hostilities in Ukraine following an unsuccessful summit with US President Donald Trump at the White House.

However, the initiative announced by Keir Starmer on Sunday raises questions about the possibility of achieving peace and the conditions under which this is possible, given the ongoing aggression from Russia and the unclear intentions of the US, reports The Guardian.

The Kremlin continues to seek dominance over Ukraine, capturing large territories and hindering Kyiv's entry into NATO. In turn, Ukraine is fighting for its own survival and the creation of a secure and independent future in the West. 'In my opinion, what Russia desires, the US cannot provide, and Ukrainians will not accept,' says Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor at King's College London.

Although Ukraine has stated that it may agree to a de facto division along the front lines, it is almost certain that it will continue to fight and will not agree to more complex terms. Most Ukrainians do not want to be under Russian influence. The desire to resist Russian dominance remains widespread in Ukrainian society.

The failed summit at the White House on Friday led to a deterioration in diplomatic relations between the US and Ukraine, casting doubt on the possibility of reducing military aid to Kyiv, which is a key instrument of influence. Despite the fact that there is still $4 billion in unallocated military assistance from the previous Biden administration, there are already hints that it may be canceled.

The cessation of American military aid will complicate the military situation for Ukraine, although it will take Time. According to Ukrainian defense officials, about 20% of the military equipment used in combat comes from the US (plus 55% from Ukraine and 25% from Europe), and this 20% pertains to the most effective and hardest to replace. Europe will struggle to replace everything that the US provides, meaning the military situation will remain complex for Ukraine. The contribution of the US is particularly important in three areas: air defense, ballistic missiles, and satellite communications.

In addition, there are questions regarding costs. To date, the US has allocated $33.8 billion to Ukraine for weapons and ammunition, as well as provided funding of $33.2 billion for the purchase of American military equipment. European military assistance is nearly on the same level, 62 billion euros, making it difficult to double these amounts. Proposals to use frozen assets of the Russian central bank to fund Ukrainian efforts have received further consideration, although the question of legal feasibility remains open.

It is evident that under President Trump, the agreement that ensured European security has vanished. At this time, the US has other security priorities, both domestically and in the Pacific region, where China is seen as a long-term threat. This is a fact that NATO allies were among the first to notice, but until now, nothing has compelled them to act. The NATO alliance may currently be experiencing a difficult period in its existence.