After Assad: Russia Wants to Maintain Military Influence in Syria.

Russia is likely to maintain a reduced military presence in Syria, achieving the key goal of President Vladimir Putin after the fall of the Assad regime, which he supported.

According to sources, Russia plans to sign an agreement with the new Syrian government that will allow it to keep some of its personnel and equipment in Syria. In exchange, Russia is willing to provide assistance and facilitate important trade to support the war-torn Syrian economy. This could be the second major foreign policy victory for Moscow this month, following the initiation of peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine.

Moscow Improves Relations with Syria

This also indicates an improvement in Moscow's relations with the new Syrian government. Russia may help in the fight against the Islamic State and counterbalance Turkey's influence. However, there are no guarantees regarding the outcome of the ongoing negotiations.

Risks for Russia

European officials hope for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. But some southern European countries fear the loss of Russian military bases in Syria, as these facilities allow Russia to project its influence in Africa and the Middle East. Russia will continue its attempts to reach an agreement with Syria regarding the retention of its port in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase. Last month, Russia sent local currency to Syria to alleviate cash shortages and support the reconstruction of the country.

Syria faces significant financial difficulties and billions of dollars in debt to Russia and Iran.