High Risks: IMF Changed Forecast for End of War in Ukraine.

Experts from the International Monetary Fund have updated their forecast regarding the duration of Russia's war against Ukraine.

This is stated in the IMF Memorandum.

In the baseline scenario, the timelines for the end of intense hostilities in Ukraine remain unchanged.

'Although risks remain extremely high, the baseline scenario still assumes that the war will end by 2026'

At the same Time, the IMF has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points. The forecast for 2026 has also been lowered by 0.8 points.

According to experts, growth in 2025 is now expected to be in the lower part of the 2-3% range, mainly due to a decrease in steel exports and an increase in coal imports due to the closure of the Pokrovsk mine as a result of hostilities, as well as an increase in gas imports following large-scale attacks on gas infrastructure.

'Ongoing hostilities, including recent large-scale attacks on gas infrastructure and the closure of a key coal mine, negatively impact economic growth in 2025'

At the same time, progress in ceasefire negotiations could improve the situation in Ukraine's economy.

The fund clarified that 'negotiations for a ceasefire are at a very early stage, and changes in international financial support and support for Ukraine's security are possible.'

IMF head Kristalina Georgieva noted that Russia's war in Ukraine continues to cause devastating social and economic damage.

'Despite this, macroeconomic stability is maintained thanks to skilled management policies and significant external support. The economy remains resilient, but the recent slowdown in growth is expected to persist into 2025 due to energy resource needs and a tight labor market.'

Georgieva also emphasized that the program remains fully funded, with the total amount of external financing amounting to 148.8 billion dollars in the baseline scenario and 162.9 billion dollars in the negative scenario over a 4-year period, including the full utilization of approximately 50 billion dollars allocated under the G7 initiative to provide Ukraine with loans to accelerate the receipt of emergency revenues (ERA).

It was previously reported that Putin is preparing a large-scale offensive against Ukraine.