Next week will bring pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate: three main risk factors.

According to ТСН: Next week, from December 15 to 21, increased demand for currency is expected in Ukraine from both individuals and businesses. Several factors are influencing the market, including risks of unstable energy supplies, which restrain business activity.

Banker Taras Lesovyi mentioned this in a comment.

Moreover, rising prices will also affect the currency market. As the banker noted, this is an additional challenge as demand for currency is increasing as a 'protective asset'. Another important factor is the uncertainty regarding international aid to Ukraine in 2026.

Forecast of the situation in the currency market

Lesovyi believes that the National Bank has enough resources to control the situation. The regime of managed flexibility and currency interventions remain the main instruments for stabilizing the currency market, allowing for timely responses to imbalances in demand and supply, preventing significant distortions.

The banker forecasts that from December 15 to 21, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market will fluctuate between 42.1-42.6 UAH (buy-sell), while the euro exchange rate will be 48.0-49.75 UAH (buy-sell).

In the cash market, the dollar exchange rate will remain in the range of 42.3-42.8 UAH, while the euro exchange rate will be 48-49.75 UAH.

According to forecasts, the difference between buying and selling rates on the interbank market will reach 0.15 UAH for the dollar and 0.20 UAH for the euro. In exchange offices, this difference is approximately 0.3-0.5 UAH for the dollar and 0.5-0.7 UAH for the euro.

It should be noted that during the working week (December 8-12), the euro exchange rate in Ukraine reached a new record high. As of December 12, its official rate against the hryvnia reached a historic record of 49.51 UAH. At the beginning of the week, on December 8, the rate was 48.99 UAH.

The latest events in the currency market indicate a difficult economic situation in Ukraine. Experts note that rising prices and energy risks may create additional pressure on the currency. Retrospectively, fluctuations in the currency rate may result not only from cyclical processes in the global economy, but also from positive or negative news regarding Ukraine's cooperation with international partners.