Dollar in January 2026: NBU Named Forecast Rate and Key Risks.

State of the Currency Market in Ukraine at the Beginning of 2026

According to ТСН: In January 2026, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations. This is due to the fact that the National Bank of Ukraine is controlling the situation in the currency market. However, at the beginning of the month, the US dollar may become slightly more expensive.

Banker Taras Lesoviy emphasized that the main factors affecting the exchange rate are quite clear, and the 'managed flexibility' regime will remain in place. These measures should help maintain market stability without sharp jumps, with controlled limits on fluctuations and predictable reactions from the regulator.

'In fact, in January we will only see the beginning of a period when supply and demand gradually align. The peak usually falls at the end of the month - beginning of February. But already in the first half of January, a certain decrease in exchange rate pressure is expected,' the banker stressed.

The main factor of uncertainty remains the intensity of hostilities, the consequences of enemy attacks on infrastructure, and the regularity of financial support from international partners in 2026.

'Under current conditions, the probable corridor for the official exchange rate ranges from 42.2 to 42.8 UAH. This is an acceptable range that does not create additional risks and concerns,' the expert concluded.

We remind you that, despite concerns, December did not bring Ukrainians a dollar at 43 UAH. Thanks to the decisive actions of the National Bank and significant financial support from the EU, the currency market entered 2026 in a relatively stable condition. One of the key factors that 'saved' the national currency at the end of the year was the interventions of the NBU.

In light of these circumstances, it is important to monitor the further decisions of the National Bank and economic indicators that may affect the exchange rate. Correct actions from the regulator and support from international partners remain crucial for the stability of the currency market in Ukraine in the coming months.