Trade War: China's tariffs on oil could hit American exports.

China's tariffs in response to US actions could lead to a reduction in American oil exports to 3.6 million barrels per day by 2025. This would be the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Analyst Rohit Ratod from the research company Vortexa claims that this year American exports may decline due to the imposition of tariffs in Canada and Mexico.

After the ban on exporting its oil was lifted in 2015, American oil exports increased more than tenfold. The US became the third-largest oil exporter in the world after Saudi Arabia and Russia.

However, China has become less interested in American oil as they are receiving discounts on Russian and Iranian oil. In 2024, China imported 166,000 barrels per day, which accounts for about 5% of total oil imports from the US.

The growth of American oil exports stalled in 2024, increasing only by 0.6%, or 24,000 barrels per day, to an average of 3.8 million barrels per day. This was due to a decrease in shale oil production influenced by falling global demand.

For China, the impact of this reduction in imports will likely be minimal, as American oil accounts for only 1.7% of the total crude oil imports into the country. This corresponds to a value of about 6 billion dollars in 2024.