Russia forecasts a decrease in revenue from oil and gas.

The government of Russia foresees a decrease in revenue from oil and gas over the next three years due to falling energy prices and a stricter tax regime for "Gazprom".

According to the three-year budget draft, Kremlin revenue from this key source will decrease by 14%, impacting the war in Ukraine and increasing defense spending in the Russian Federation.

According to the draft, next year the Russian oil and gas industry will contribute 10.94 trillion rubles ($118 billion) to the state budget, which is 3.3% less than the forecast for 2024. Further depreciation is expected over the next two years, reaching 9.77 trillion rubles by 2027.

The latest forecasts indicate a weakening of global energy markets. The average export price for Russian oil is expected to fall below $70 per barrel, and contract prices for gas will decrease by 2027.

It is predicted that in the long term, oil may become even cheaper due to declining demand and the popularity of renewable energy. It is noted that OPEC+ jointly reduces production to restore market balance.

Another factor affecting revenue from oil and gas is the lifting of additional tax burdens from "Gazprom". This is a major source of income for the government. According to Bloomberg estimates, if a decision on a softer fiscal regime is made, tax receipts from gas production will decrease by more than 30% by 2025.

Source: enkorr