Ukrainian banks suddenly lowered deposit rates: what the NBU forecasts.

Ukrainian banks have lowered deposit rates even more than experts predicted. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the average rates for new deposits were 10.5% in January, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than in December of last year (10.8%).

The increase in the NBU's key interest rate is related to the acceleration of inflation, which reached 12.9% in January.

This shows that the rate reduction occurred even after a twofold increase in the NBU's key rate - first to 13.5% in December 2024 and then to 14.5% in January 2025. Generally, an increase in the key rate leads to a rise in both deposit and loan interest rates.

Nevertheless, the volume of the population's deposit base grew by 0.2% to 1.216 trillion hryvnias in January.

The National Bank of Ukraine believes that the financial market reacts to changes in the key interest rate with a slight delay of two to three months. However, taking into account the NBU's forecast, inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and may reach 15%. This could lead to more favorable deposits for Ukrainians, but also to more expensive loans, potentially reducing demand for bank loans.