USDA Forecasts Increase in Ukrainian Wheat Exports.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Changes Crop Production Forecasts in Ukraine

According to updated forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Ukrainian wheat production in the 2024/25 marketing year will increase to 21.6 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons more, and exports will reach 14 million tons, increasing by 1 million tons. On the other hand, corn production and exports will decrease to 27.2 million tons and 24 million tons respectively, which is 0.5 million tons less.

It is also forecasted that initial stocks, production, and trade in the global wheat market will increase, but ending stocks will decrease.

The global wheat production forecast will rise due to increased planting areas in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Australia, as well as improved yields in these countries. Global wheat consumption will also increase, surpassing 800 million tons, especially in the EU, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Trade volumes will grow thanks to exports from Australia and Ukraine.

Conversely, corn production and ending stocks will decrease due to adverse weather conditions such as heat and drought, particularly in the EU, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Overall, a decline in corn production and trade is expected on the global market, except in the U.S., where production growth is anticipated.