How Russia's Survival Strategy in Ukraine Backfired.

War as the Kremlin's Means of Survival

According to UATV: According to Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military analyst for Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, the war in Ukraine has become a mechanism for the Kremlin regime's survival, not a tool for achieving its foreign policy objectives. The initial assessment of the situation in 2022 was flawed, leading to the collapse of Russia's original plans. This conflict has fundamentally reshaped Russia's relationship with the West and its own society.

Musiyenko argues that the war has become the sole mode of existence for Russia's power structure. He emphasized that

"Russia currently has no real strategy. Essentially, it all boils down to the fact that the war is a means of survival exclusively for the Kremlin regime, not for Russia,"

The Kremlin's Strategic Blunders

Furthermore, Musiyenko noted that the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin represent a 'catastrophic error of strategic proportions, which will have and is already having strategic consequences for the Russian Federation.' He also pointed out that the Kremlin is taking steps to intensify censorship within society, a fact evidenced by the pre-screened questions posed to Putin during his annual live call-in show.

"Let's look at the questions that were put to Putin during the hotline. What was shown on the screens? Only what passed through censorship," — Oleksandr Musiyenko.

Thus, the war in Ukraine has become for the Kremlin not merely a military conflict, but also an instrument for maintaining domestic power, signaling a serious shift in the strategy of the Russian leadership.

The assessment of the situation in Ukraine and its impact on Russia's internal politics points to deep structural problems within the Kremlin regime. Instead of achieving its foreign policy aims, the war has led to Russia's international isolation and a tightening of internal repression. This is likely to have profound consequences not only for Russia but for regional security as a whole, creating long-term instability.