Futurologist Dlihach: A pause in the war is possible in February 2026, but then a new wave will follow.

According to ТСН: At the beginning of 2026, approximately in February, a temporary pause in the war between Russia and Ukraine is possible. However, hostilities are likely to resume later and may become even more intense. This opinion was expressed by a Ukrainian futurologist, Doctor of Economic Sciences.

Futurology is concerned with forecasting based on scientific, economic, and technological data, as well as constructing scenarios for the development of events. The expert explains that these forecasts are based on an assessment of existing risks.

Possibility of Settlement

Commenting on recent statements from American leadership about the possibility of resolving the war in the coming 90 days, the expert noted:

"As for the timelines, 90 days, 2 meters (to settle the war) – it was the same when the US President Donald Trump said there would be 24 hours. I wouldn't pay attention to this, as the situation for us, unfortunately, is a game."

He emphasized that there are also several influencing groups within the US administration, which raises concerns.

"The head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, has not stated anything that would give us positive feelings. Putin has stated readiness to continue the war."

Scenarios of Offensives

The expert continued:

"I see the situation somewhat differently. We have analyzed the dynamics of 9 options for agreements, starting from the Istanbul one. We see a positive dynamic in favor of Ukraine, but unfortunately, what the Americans offer us is compromises on Russian territory."

He expressed doubts about the possibility of a stable peace agreement, noting:

"I currently have no optimism about a peace agreement. In any case, it will be one that we call 'rotten'. It will be a temporary phenomenon before a new Russian offensive."

Shelling and the Probability of New Attacks

The expert notes that the likelihood of new shelling of Ukraine by Russia remains high:

"Russia is exceeding production plans for missiles, shells, and long-range drones. Russia has produced 4 million shells."

However, Ukraine's adaptability is high.

"F-16s involved in repelling the recent large-scale attack showed 100% effectiveness in destroying Russian missiles."

Conclusions

The expert believes that in the near future, either Ukraine or Russia may be forced to sign an agreement, but there will be no compromise. He concluded:

"Unfortunately, the highest probability is that Ukraine will be forced. However, this will only be an interim scenario that will allow us to hold elections and improve our defense."

Andriy Dlihach believes that Russia continues to fulfill its mobilization plans and has great potential for resource accumulation.

"The new war, I think, will be scaled compared to what we have observed in recent months: 'meat assaults', the use of drones, long-range strikes. We must be prepared."

The expert's conclusions highlight the increasing danger of a new escalation of the conflict. Despite possible pauses in hostilities, the Kremlin shows no willingness to compromise. This may lead to new attacks, and it is important for Ukraine to maintain a high level of defense and readiness for further challenges.