The West May Lift Restrictions on Strikes Against Russia, Kremlin's Fears Grow, - ISW.

The Russian authorities are seriously concerned about the introduction of long-range measures by Western countries. The West is concerned that Russia is trying to convince Western countries not to allow Ukraine to use this weapon for strikes on its territory. This information is contained in the latest report by analysts of the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing an article by The New York Times foreign media.

According to unnamed US officials, US intelligence has downgraded the impact assessments of Ukrainian strikes on Russia using long-range missile systems provided by the US, the UK, and France. The reason for this is the limited number of such weapons in Ukraine and uncertainty about future supplies of longer-range systems.

However, some officials in the US Armed Forces and the Biden administration are advocating for a change in policy. They argue that the weapons provided by the West will allow Ukraine to strike more distant Russian bases and ammunition depots, forcing the Russian military to move key assets further from the front lines, significantly complicating their supply lines in Ukraine.

ISW emphasizes that even a small number of Ukrainian long-range strikes can asymmetrically impact Russian logistics. This can be seen from the example of the strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian ammunition depots using HIMARS missile systems in the summer of 2022 on the occupied territory of Ukraine. This led to the dispersal of Russian force supplies and a decrease in the efficiency of their logistics.

The Russian authorities are trying to prevent the possibility of another large-scale strike campaign by the West, as moving ammunition depots and other key assets further from the front lines and the reach of Western systems could impact Russia's offensive capabilities in Ukraine. Thus, Russia is making significant efforts to prevent such a possibility, analysts at ISW assert.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy stated that he expects a decision on lifting restrictions from Ukraine on strikes against Russia before winter begins. This decision is considered important in connection with the transition from autumn to winter, when the West needs to demonstrate its courage and support for Ukraine.