Oil prices will drop to $40 per barrel: when to expect a decrease and what it means.

The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that by the end of 2025, oil prices on the world market may significantly drop due to increased oil production and the slowing down of China's economy - the largest consumer of Russian oil. It is expected that the price per barrel will decrease by a third compared to current levels.

Why oil prices may collapse

OPEC+ is not adhering to the agreement to limit oil production as Saudi Arabia has begun to increase production, which is leading to overproduction along with other countries. This, in turn, will lead to unpredictable consequences in the world market.

Forecasts for 2026

Preliminary prices for a barrel of oil are estimated at $66-68, but at the beginning of 2026, its value may drop to $40-50. The slowdown of China's economic growth, increased oil exports from other countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Norway, as well as the absence of geopolitical risks that previously affected oil prices will contribute to the reduction of its value.

Several countries have already stopped purchasing Russian oil due to sanctions, but China continues to buy it, ignoring this fact.

According to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, global oil prices may significantly drop by the end of 2025 due to increased oil production and the slowdown of China's economy, which may lead to a decrease in the barrel value by a third compared to current prices. There are warnings about possible consequences from the collapse of the OPEC+ agreement and increased oil production from countries, which could result in unpredictable developments in the global market. Projections for the following year suggest further declines in oil prices due to various factors, including China's slowdown and increased oil exports from other countries, as well as the absence of geopolitical risks.