Inflation in Ukraine in January: experts diverge in forecasts from 0.5% to 1.5%.

According to ТСН: After the New Year's holidays, Ukrainians usually wonder how prices have changed in stores. Economists have different opinions regarding January's inflation: forecasts range from an optimistic 0.5% to a more alarming 1.5%.

Scenario #1: Calm January

Economist Oleg Pendzin believes that inflation will remain insignificant (around 0.5%). In his opinion, the main reason is a sharp decline in consumer demand, as people have less money after the holidays, which encourages traders to keep prices stable.

What will not become more expensive:

• Fast-moving consumer goods: milk, yogurts, fresh meat, live fish.

• Imported vegetables: cucumbers, tomatoes, and peppers, prices of which are already at peak levels.

• Citrus fruits and eggs: the supply in the market is currently sufficient.

What may increase in price:

• Vegetables and apples: farmers without warm storage are already selling leftovers, and professional warehouses face higher storage costs.

• Bread: due to the gradual rise in production costs.

Scenario #2: Inflationary Jump

Analyst Andriy Shevchishin has a more pessimistic forecast, expecting inflation to accelerate to 1.5%. According to him, the stability of food prices may be overshadowed by other significant factors.

Main factors for price increases:

1. More money in the population: starting January 1, minimum wages and pensions are rising, as well as salaries for budget employees, which stimulates businesses to raise prices.

2. Tax pressure: the annual planned increase in excises on alcohol, tobacco, and fuel will immediately affect retail prices.

3. Generator surcharge: due to power outages, businesses factor in fuel costs for generators into the price of goods, which could add another 0.1–0.2% to the overall inflation.

Instead of viewing January's inflation as unequivocally defined, economists emphasize various factors that may influence the consumer market. While some experts are optimistic, others predict a more significant increase in prices. Time will tell whether it will be possible to keep inflation at the desired level or if this will be a serious problem for Ukrainians in the new year.