2026 will determine the fate of Ukraine and the global order: The Washington Post forecast.

According to ТСН: 2026 will be critically important for Ukraine, as the outcome of the war will depend on the international order and it will be clear whether the Western alliance can deter aggression and ensure security in the world.

The analysis of the situation indicates that the environment in 2026 is extremely unstable. The administration of Donald Trump, entering its second term, began to pressure Ukraine, trying to force it into concessions that could be presented to Putin as a 'necessary peace'. Meanwhile, the Kremlin demanded even more territories than it had already seized during the war, which only exacerbated the conflict.

Time-limited security guarantees for Ukraine proposed by the USA could create a dangerous precedent: they signal Moscow about the future possibility of renewed aggression and question the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine's economy.

Experts emphasize that true peace requires a robust structure and reliable deterrence, not just temporary ceasefires. While short-term agreements may provide a pause, without a structured peace agreement the threat of new conflict remains relevant.

Global implications of the war's outcome

The publication notes that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will serve as a sort of referendum for the international order of the 21st century: if Russia is allowed to legitimize its violent seizure of territories, it will have global consequences, from Asia to Europe, and undermine trust in Western alliances.

In contrast, a just and reliable settlement will ensure long-term security, open the way for reconstruction and investment, and affirm the effectiveness of deterrence in global politics.

It is noted that Ukraine in 2026 will determine not only its own fate but also the fate of the international order, putting the Western alliance to the test of its ability to maintain stability in a harsher century.

Recall that earlier we reported that the international observer from Politico Europe, Jamie Dettmer, believes that Russia's war against Ukraine is likely to end as early as 2026, but under a scenario that will be extremely unfavorable for Kyiv.

If the results of the war indeed become a significant benchmark for the international community, it is crucial for countries around the world to pay attention to these events. The success or failure of Ukraine in this struggle could be a decisive factor in shaping a new global security architecture for the coming decades.