Dollar at 50 Hryvnias and Price Increases: What to Expect for Ukrainians in 2025.

Ukraine in 2025 may face new economic challenges. According to expert Oleksiy Kushch, the dollar exchange rate may reach 47 Hryvnias under the most likely scenario, or even exceed 50 Hryvnias in the case of negative developments.

Under the most likely scenario, the devaluation of the Hryvnia will not exceed the inflation rate, which is expected to be within 8-10%. However, GDP growth may remain at the level of 3-4%, and unemployment may decrease to 11-13%.

The expert emphasizes that the year 2025 will be difficult due to the crisis in the labor market and the energy crisis.

The forecast becomes even worse in the event of escalation of conflict or reduction of external support:

economic growth may slow down to 0-2%

inflation may rise to 10-15%

the dollar exchange rate may exceed 50 Hryvnias

the unemployment rate may reach 20%

According to forecasts, the number of refugees abroad may increase by 300-500 thousand people under the most likely scenario, or by 500 thousand to 1 million under negative scenarios. The return of the population from abroad is not expected under any scenario.

The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that in 2025, the population loss will amount to approximately 200 thousand people, and inflow will be possible no earlier than 2026 at a level not exceeding 500 thousand people.