Ukraine’s Economy Shrank by 30% in the First Year of War: Ustenko on Challenges and International Aid.

Oleh Ustenko’s Wartime Experience

According to UATV: Oleh Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist who served as an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from 2019 to 2024, has shared insights into his work during the war, the economic hurdles Ukraine faces, and the critical role of foreign support. Born in Kyiv in 1969, Ustenko earned a master’s degree from Harvard University in 2001 and later became a doctoral candidate at Brandeis University in 2003. Since 2004, he has been part of the Blazer International Foundation team.

Ukraine’s Economic Struggles

The country’s economy is under severe strain. In the first year of the full-scale invasion, GDP dropped by 30%. Ustenko stressed the urgent need for international assistance, noting that Ukraine received roughly $35–40 billion in 2022 to sustain state institutions. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also pledged €50 billion in support. Defense and security spending now accounts for about 30% of GDP, and the projected budget for this sector in 2026 is around $60 billion.

• National debt has climbed to 100% of GDP.
• The exchange rate stands at approximately 45 hryvnias to the dollar.

'All this chatter coming from Russia from time to time—look at how big Ukraine’s debt is—yes, indeed, our debt is large.' Oleh Ustenko

Ustenko also stated, 'In my view, the less government involvement in the economy, the better,' emphasizing the role of big business in the country’s future. He addressed the oligarch issue, saying, 'The problem with oligarchs is not that someone is wealthy.' These remarks highlight the complexity of the economic landscape and the tough decisions facing the nation during wartime.

As the war drags on, Ukraine is grappling with deep economic difficulties that demand substantial international backing. The importance of external financial aid is becoming increasingly clear as the country works to stabilize its economy and maintain security. Ensuring economic stability is essential for Ukraine’s long-term development and post-conflict recovery.