Hryvnia's February 2026 Outlook: Where the Dollar and Euro Stand.

The Hryvnia's Performance in February 2026

According to Novyny.live: Significant volatility marked the Ukrainian hryvnia's exchange rate against the US dollar and euro in February 2026, raising concerns about the currency market's stability. The official hryvnia-to-dollar rate fluctuated between UAH 42.81 and UAH 43.29 per dollar from February 1st to the 20th. Meanwhile, the hryvnia-to-euro rate dipped to UAH 50.76 before climbing to UAH 51.25, further highlighting the market's instability.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has indicated a strategy to stabilize the currency, aiming to keep the hryvnia within a range of UAH 42.80 to UAH 43.40 per dollar. However, a key risk to this plan is the potential cessation of Western financial aid, which could trigger a devaluation of the hryvnia and worsen the market situation. The euro-to-dollar exchange rate was recorded at $1.18 per euro, a factor that may influence future currency movements.

Currency Market Prospects and Expert Analysis

Financial experts express worry over the emerging trends. Alexey Plotnikov noted:

“I see no signals that the war will stop for us, that martial law will be canceled, and that Ukraine's recovery will begin within a month.”

“It will be interesting to see if the European Bank will actively intervene in the situation.”

The expert added that if the main EUR/USD pair stabilizes around $1.18-$1.19, the official hryvnia-to-euro rate in Ukraine would likely remain in the range of UAH 50.70 to UAH 51.30 per euro. Thus, the situation on Ukraine's currency market remains complex, with the future actions of the NBU and international financial institutions poised to determine the course of events.

Instability in Ukraine's currency market, driven by external factors like the ongoing war and reliance on foreign aid, poses significant risks to economic stability. Given expert assessments, the future steps of international financial bodies, alongside the domestic political climate, could substantially impact the hryvnia's exchange rate and investor confidence. This necessitates careful monitoring by both state authorities and the business community to mitigate potential adverse effects on the Ukrainian economy. The hryvnia's trajectory remains a critical indicator of the country's financial health amid prolonged conflict.