Economic Outlook for Ukraine in February 2026: Wages, Pensions, and Fuel Prices.

Ukraine's Economic Forecast for February 2026

According to TSN.ua: Ukrainian citizens are anticipating changes to their incomes, pensions, inflation, and currency exchange rates in February 2026. Expert analyses and estimates present varying forecasts for wages, food prices, and fuel costs. These projections come as the country continues to navigate a complex post-war economic landscape.

According to forecasts, the average wage in Ukraine for February could reach 28,850 hryvnias. This indicates potential earnings growth, as average wages in January are estimated to be between 27,000 and 28,000 hryvnias. Expert Andriy Shevchyshyn notes that the average February salary may even increase by approximately 1,000 hryvnias compared to January.

Forecasts for Pensions, Inflation, and Exchange Rates

Regarding pensions, an indexation of 11-14% is expected. However, the maximum increase in pension payments cannot exceed 1,500 hryvnias. This adjustment will be a significant factor for many Ukrainians who rely on these state payments.

Ukraine's inflation rate for 2025 was 8%. For February 2026, inflation is forecast to be 1-1.1%, as reported by expert Andriy Zablovsky. This rate will likely influence the prices of food and other consumer goods.

The official U.S. dollar exchange rate for February is projected to be between 42.5 and 43.5 hryvnias, whereas in January the dollar was valued at 43 hryvnias. Fluctuations in the exchange rate can impact the broader economic situation and the population's purchasing power.

Fuel prices are also expected to rise, with an anticipated increase of 2 hryvnias per liter. Gennadiy Ryabtsev, an energy sector expert, states that the average price for gasoline and diesel may exceed 60 hryvnias per liter. Such an increase could affect transportation costs and the price of goods and services throughout the economy.

These forecasts point to a degree of stability and potential improvement in the population's financial standing. However, rising inflation and fuel costs may force consumers to be more mindful of their expenses.

Expert Assessments

Consequently, Ukrainians may face significant economic shifts in February 2026, affecting both incomes and expenditures. Increases in wages, pensions, inflation, currency exchange rates, and fuel prices could substantially alter the country's financial landscape. The public's reaction to these changes, as well as state actions to control prices and support the economy amidst currency fluctuations, will be crucial.