IMF Issues Grim Forecast on the War in Ukraine.

IMF: The War in Ukraine May Last Until the End of 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new forecast regarding the duration of the war in Ukraine. According to the updated memorandum, in the most optimistic scenario, the war will end by the end of 2025.

In the baseline scenario, active combat operations may substantially decrease in the fourth quarter of 2025, which will undoubtedly slow down economic development but allow Ukraine to maintain moderate growth. This is reported by Meta.

The IMF's forecast also notes that the greatest impact of the war will remain in regions where economic activity has already decreased due to the security situation. However, in a negative scenario, the conflict may drag on until the middle of 2026.

Despite some positive trends in recovery, IMF experts emphasize that the prolonged war will continue to put pressure on the country's economy due to labor shortages, import dependency associated with military spending and infrastructure recovery, as well as due to demographic changes.

The document also emphasizes that Ukraine is experiencing significant economic, social, and humanitarian losses daily, and these losses continue to grow due to the prolonged conflict.

Recall that the IMF gave a grim forecast for Ukraine's energy sector.