Ukrainian Lawmaker Kosenko: War Unlikely to Freeze in 2026, Russian Forces May Target the South.

Kostenko's Assessment on the Prospects for a Ceasefire

According to Novyny.live: Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian Member of Parliament and Secretary of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, has stated that a freezing of hostilities in 2026 is highly improbable. He made these remarks during the YES Meeting organized by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, suggesting that after their focus on Donbas, Russian occupying forces could concentrate their efforts on southern Ukraine. This perspective comes amid ongoing international discussions about potential pathways to end the conflict.

Kostenko emphasized that he sees no military factors that would lead to the war's conclusion.

"I would, of course, like the war to stop, but I do not see any military factors for this," the deputy noted.

Diverging Forecasts on an End to the War in Ukraine

Various predictions about a potential end to the war in Ukraine have recently emerged, highlighting a lack of consensus:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has predicted the conflict could end by February 27.
• Former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed an intent to end the war by July 4 of this year.
• Economist Oleksiy Kushch estimates the probability of the war in Ukraine ending this year at only 40%.

Kostenko's position reflects a broader anxiety among Ukrainian officials regarding peace prospects, given the complex military situation and conflicting forecasts. The emergence of these varied assessments underscores the profound uncertainty in both the political and military spheres. Many Ukrainian leaders argue that without significant changes on the battlefield, peace negotiations are likely to remain sidelined, reinforcing the perceived need for sustained international support as the conflict continues and the search for regional stability persists.