NBU updated inflation forecasts for 2024-2025.

The National Bank of Ukraine updated the inflation forecast for 2024, lowering it from 8.6% to 8.2%. The forecast for 2025 worsened - from 5.8% to 6%. This was reported by the head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshny, during a press briefing on August 30, 2024.

The NBU expects an increase in inflationary pressure due to the exhaustion of the effects of large harvests, the recovery of consumption, and the growth of business costs. However, thanks to improved inflation expectations, the forecast for the end of the year was lowered.

The NBU forecasts that inflation will enter the target corridor of "5%+-1%", maintaining expectations of accelerated consumer price growth at the level of 5% in 2026. This will be facilitated by the gradual normalization of conditions for the functioning of the economy and the weakening of external inflationary pressure.

The head of the NBU emphasized that the key risk remains the further course of the war. The NBU foresees a reduction in security risks, but a prolonged war threatens further destruction.

According to the head of the National Bank, there is still a likelihood of the realization of positive scenarios related to the expansion of export opportunities, the transfer of funds from immobilized Russian assets, and the expansion of the Eurointegration process.

According to the NBU, inflation as of the end of March this year stands at 3.2%.