Why a German Political Scientist Believes Russia Could Collapse.

Growing Fears Over Russia’s Potential Disintegration

According to Espreso.tv: In a recent interview, German political analyst Andreas Umland raised concerns that internal conflicts sparked by the war in Ukraine might lead to Russia’s breakup. He highlighted two historical precedents of Russian state collapse: the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Umland argued that a similar scenario could unfold in modern Russia, where the issue is not just a change in leadership but the possible fragmentation of the state itself.

Economic and Social Pressures Mount

According to Umland, the war in Ukraine could trigger severe consequences for Russia.

“With this war, Putin is playing with fire when it comes to his own country,”

he warned, emphasizing that each day of conflict increases the risk of state destabilization. The situation is already alarming: since the start of 2026, Russia has lost at least $7 billion due to strikes on its oil refining infrastructure, and the budget deficit for the first four months of the year reached 5.9 trillion rubles.

On June 18, 2026, Russia was forced to boost military spending by 40%, a clear sign of serious financial strain. Yet, despite these challenges, the country increased its pipeline oil exports by 22% on June 23, 2026. These figures suggest that Russia’s economy is trying to adapt to new conditions, but internal problems could still escalate.

In conclusion, Volodymyr Zelenskyy also noted that most Russians are blaming President Putin for the lack of progress in the war:

“There is no end in sight for his war,”

Zelenskyy stated. These comments reflect growing domestic discontent, which could further complicate the situation.

An analysis of the situation in Russia indicates that internal economic and social challenges could have serious implications for the country’s political stability. Rising war expenditures, combined with financial difficulties—including a substantial budget deficit—may intensify public dissatisfaction. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of internal conflicts that could threaten the integrity of the Russian state. Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and mounting societal pressure, the situation in the country warrants close attention from the international community.