Lukashenko's resistance to the Kremlin's efforts to absorb Belarus weakens – ISW.

According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is trying to absorb Belarus through the Union State. In November, Russia and Belarus signed an agreement on a new package of integration measures for 2024-2026, aimed at intensifying the Kremlin's efforts to absorb Belarus. It is expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will sign this package during a meeting of the Higher State Council of the Union State, which may take place in 2024.

According to ISW, Lukashenko previously resisted the integration of Belarus into the Union State, but recent events, such as the death of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the breakdown of the agreement between Putin, Prigozhin and Lukashenko that allowed Wagner to find refuge in Belarus, have likely undermined Lukashenko's ability to resist integration into the Union State, analysts report.

Lukashenko stated that he is the guarantor of Belarusian independence and hopes that young leaders will be able to "save the country" in future elections. In addition, Lukashenko plans trips to African and Middle Eastern countries.