Reuters: The Central Bank Warns Putin About the Risk of Prolonged Oil Price Decline.

The Central Bank of Russia has warned about a possible decline in oil prices, which could have similar consequences to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1980s. This information was sent to the Kremlin leadership before negotiations between the presidents of Russia and the United States regarding the conclusion of the war in Ukraine.

Donald Trump announced the possibility of imposing additional sanctions against Russia if a peace agreement is not reached. He also urged the OPEC leader to increase oil production to support the global economy.

The warning from the Central Bank was included in a presentation prepared for discussion at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in February. This presentation did not contain specific details on how OPEC and the United States might saturate the oil market and how probable these risks are.

For Russia, oil and gas are of great importance to its economy. High oil prices in the past helped the Kremlin sustain the economy and finance various political campaigns abroad. However, when prices fell, the Russian economy suffered, leading to geopolitical consequences that culminated in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Therefore, the statements from the Central Bank regarding the possibility of a similar situation are a sharp warning.

Currently, oil prices remain in a comfortable range for Russia, but the Central Bank expresses concern about a possible price decline and a strong ruble. Experience from previous years shows that low oil prices can lead to financial turmoil for the country.