General Malomuzh: Russia Lacks the Manpower for a Major Offensive.

Russia's Resource Shortfall for Large-Scale Offensives

According to TSN.ua: Ukrainian General Mykola Malomuzh has stated that Russia lacks the necessary resources to launch large-scale offensive operations, citing a critical imbalance between its losses and its ability to mobilize new troops. According to his analysis, the enemy currently cannot mount systematic offensives because approximately 30,000–35,000 Russian troops are being eliminated each month, while Russia can only mobilize around 25,000 personnel monthly. This assessment comes as Ukraine's defense continues to adapt and strengthen.

Malomuzh outlined the substantial manpower Russia would need for specific operations: about 120,000 personnel for actions in the Zaporizhzhia region, and a figure rising to 200,000–250,000 for an operation in Donetsk. He emphasized that for a major offensive, Russia would require an additional minimum of 300,000 trained soldiers.

“That means they need at least another 300,000 soldiers, but trained ones,” General Mykola Malomuzh noted.

Challenges in Russia's Military-Industrial Complex

The situation within Russia's military-industrial complex is also a serious concern, as the country currently lacks the resources to restore its high-tech defense manufacturing capabilities. Furthermore, external support for Russia, particularly from Iran and North Korea, is diminishing. Malomuzh also stressed that “for a large-scale operation, they need not just more manpower.” Thanks to advanced technology, a more professional defense model, and effective counter-strikes, any enemy offensive operations are being degraded even as they are being prepared.

“The Russian occupiers have no prospects for a major offensive,” he underscored.

Therefore, in Mykola Malomuzh's view, Russia does not possess sufficient resources to successfully conduct large offensive operations, which creates certain advantages for Ukrainian forces in the current conflict. This analysis suggests that the Ukrainian armed forces could gain a strategic advantage in the near future, considering the enemy's resource shortages. The lack of mobilization capacity and reduced external support could significantly impact Russia's combat effectiveness, potentially altering the course of the conflict. Given these factors, it remains crucial for Ukraine to continue strengthening its defensive positions and maintain international cooperation to secure necessary resources and technologies.