Russia's 'Severe Scenario' Tactics Near Kostiantynivka: Implications for the Front Line.

The Situation in Kostiantynivka

According to TSN.ua: Russian forces are employing a tactic known as the 'Severe Scenario' in their advance toward Kostiantynivka, aiming to solidify their hold on captured positions. This method involves rapid infiltration by small infantry groups backed by artillery, drones, and aerial bombs. After establishing a foothold, the enemy is bringing in additional units, complicating the situation for Ukraine's defense forces. This tactic mirrors Russia's approach in the battle for Severodonetsk in 2022, which was characterized by intense, grinding urban warfare.

Currently, Ukrainian defenders are eliminating isolated enemy groups, but vulnerabilities are appearing on both flanks. Kostiantynivka is partially caught in a fire sack, creating added risks for its defense. The frontline is shifting, and the enemy is forming a 'pocket' in the center, making it harder to control the overall situation.

Forecasts and Threats

Experts, including Ivan Stupak, forecast a 95% probability that Kostiantynivka will be the next location for a defensive breakthrough. Military analyst Bohdan Myroshnykov notes:

“The further this goes, the harder it will become. If nothing changes, Kostiantynivka will be lost.” - Bohdan Myroshnykov

The situation in Kostiantynivka is critical, as control of this city holds strategic importance for both sides of the conflict. Its loss could open a path for further Russian advances into the deep rear of Ukrainian positions, jeopardizing the defense not only of the city but also of surrounding areas. Therefore, strengthening defensive measures is a top priority for Ukrainian forces to prevent further escalation and losses.