How long will the North Korean military last in Ukraine – ISW forecast.

North Korea has lost nearly 4 thousand soldiers

According to information provided by the Institute for the Study of War, there are 12 thousand North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, who may be killed or wounded by mid-April 2025 at the current rate of losses.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky reported that as of early January this year, 3,800 North Korean servicemen have been killed or wounded in the Kursk region.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that North Korean troops are involved in 'minor' clashes in the Kursk region.

The nature of this conflict is changing, which is why Russian military bloggers have been claiming since early December 2024 that North Korean troops are engaged in more extensive combat operations in this region.

According to ISW estimates, North Korean military losses amount to about 92 soldiers per day since the start of active hostilities in December 2024.

It is noted that North Korea deployed about 12 thousand servicemen to the Kursk region, who may be killed or wounded within 12 weeks (by mid-April 2025) if North Korean losses continue.

According to ISW experts, 'North Korean troops are likely to continue to suffer more injuries than deaths, which is typical for an armed conflict. It is unknown whether wounded North Korean soldiers will return to combat readiness, and if so, when that will happen.'