Only 30% of refugees can return to Ukraine: what changed the forecasts.

According to ТСН: The hope that at least half of the refugees will return home after the war looks increasingly optimistic. Currently, demographers cautiously talk about 30%, and even this figure may be at risk.

Why is 50% unrealistic?

According to the expert, the situation is becoming increasingly pessimistic. Earlier, there were hopes for the return of at least half of the refugees, but now this bar has significantly lowered.

“We are unfortunately no longer talking about 50%. But I would still count on 30%,” Gladyun points out.

He emphasizes that the idea that all Ukrainians abroad are living well is a myth. Many people face various difficulties, but they remain outside the country only due to one factor — safety. They left due to the war, and while it continues, fear outweighs the desire to return.

The main enemy — time and 'frozen'

The expert highlights two key factors that will affect the number of people returning:

1. Duration of the war: The longer people spend abroad, the deeper they integrate — children go to school, adults find jobs, learn the language. Ties to home become weaker.

2. Conditions for peace: This is the most important aspect.

   • Release of all territories: The greatest incentive for return. People will see the prospects of safe life.

   • Frozen conflict: The worst scenario for demographics. If the war stops only along the front line, most refugees will consider this a temporary pause before a new 'hot phase'.

“If people understand that the war has only stopped for a year or two, while Russia regains strength, they will not risk their children's future and will not return,” warns the demographer.

Is there hope?

Despite the grim forecasts, 30% still represents millions of people who can become the foundation for recovery. But the reality will depend not only on the economic programs of the government but primarily on the security guarantees that Ukraine will receive after combat operations conclude.

This data underscores the importance of stability and peace for the return of Ukrainians. In conditions of prolonged conflict, even small improvements in the situation can significantly influence refugees' decisions to return home.