Hryvnia exchange rate next week: what factors will influence the currency market.

According to ТСН: During the next week (December 8-14), no significant changes are expected in the currency market of Ukraine. However, there are both internal and external factors that may affect the exchange rate indicators.

Banker Taras Lesoviy noted that the political and economic situation in the world, particularly in connection with the end of the war in Ukraine, will influence the market. Moreover, internal political events such as scandals and the situation at the front will also impact the exchange rates.

“During the war, the role of the National Bank is crucial, which currently has enough opportunities to keep the currency market from any shocks,” emphasized the banker.

Among the measures of the National Bank are a monetary policy aimed at supporting the hryvnia, a 'managed flexibility' regime, and the development of hryvnia deposits.

“Thus, we should expect that next week the exchange rate changes will not be threatening; all fluctuations will remain within the 'system' of currency changes of the 'managed flexibility' regime,” assessed Taras Lesoviy.

Overall market characteristics

Currency fluctuation corridors:

• interbank: 42.2 – 42.6 UAH per dollar and 48 – 49.75 UAH per euro;

• cash market: 42.3 – 42.8 UAH per dollar and 48 – 49.75 UAH per euro.

Average difference between interbank and cash market rates:

• 0.1 – 0.15 UAH.

Current (daily) exchange rate fluctuations:

• interbank – up to 0.05 – 0.15 UAH;

• commercial banks – up to 0.1 – 0.2 UAH;

• exchange points – up to 0.3 UAH.

Difference between buying and selling rates:

• interbank – up to 0.15 UAH per 1 dollar, up to 0.2 UAH per 1 euro;

• commercial banks – up to 0.5 – 0.6 UAH per 1 dollar, up to 0.8 – 1 UAH per 1 euro;

• exchange points – up to 0.6 – 1 UAH per 1 dollar, up to 1 – 1.3 UAH per 1 euro.

It is quite clear that the Verkhovna Rada has adopted the bill “On the State Budget for 2026”. For the first time since 2023, the budget for 2026 provides for an increase in social standards. In particular, the total minimum living wage will rise from 2,920 UAH to 3,209 UAH, while the minimum wage will decrease from 8,000 UAH to 8,647 UAH.

This budget not only reflects the new economic realities of Ukraine but may also become an important step in attempts to restore stability in our economy amid a prolonged war. While observing the currency rates, it is essential to remember these changes in social standards, which may positively impact the purchasing power of the population. All that remains is to hope that the political situation will not hinder the implementation of the planned measures.