Ukraine completes the harvest: what awaits the wheat market.

The harvest in Ukraine has ended, with 3.5 million hectares of land threshed and 14.7 million tons of wheat harvested. Contracts for the purchase of wheat for August and September have already been concluded. Wheat prices are constantly rising, according to an analytical briefing from PUSK, which is part of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.

"In the SRT wheat markets, prices are rising by $5-6 per ton, while in the CIF markets – only by $1. Usually, prices rise first in the CIF markets, so this situation indicates problems traders have with covering contracts. Because of this, traders are encouraging farmers with higher prices," analysts note.

PUSK experts predict that this situation may last for about two weeks. In the sea ports of Odessa, wheat prices for the next week will fluctuate between 175-189 $/t under SRT conditions, while under CIF Constanta conditions, prices will be 205-215$/t. Analysts advise those who do not plan to sell wheat over the next few weeks to ignore price fluctuations now, as July is an unstable month for the grain market.

In the long term, wheat prices will rise. One of the factors that will keep prices high is the global reduction in grain production.

"European grain markets are unstable. In the EU, wheat production is expected to decrease by 10 million tons, in the Russian Federation – by 10 million tons, and in Ukraine – by 3-4 million tons. Only the USA predicts an increase in production by 4 million tons, which does not compensate for the decline in the EU and the Russian Federation. Therefore, global prices are likely to rise given the decrease in production," PUSK adds.