The war will last until the end of 2026: when a ceasefire is possible - forecast of the general.

According to ТСН: The war in Ukraine will continue into 2026, and only at the end of the year may there be an opportunity to end hostilities. This opinion was expressed by a military expert, a retired lieutenant general.

Peace negotiations: activation in February

The expert notes that a favorable environment for activating negotiations regarding a possible ceasefire may arise in mid-February. However, he emphasizes that much depends on the military-political and military-diplomatic conditions.

“Ukraine persevered as a state in 2025, and resistance will continue in 2026. The situation at the front remains severe. In some areas – Siversk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Huliaipole – it is critical. Our defenders manage to hold the defense. And the plans of Russian propaganda for a breakthrough and access to operational space remain just plans,” the expert notes.

Holding the enemy and the resilience of the front help our leadership in diplomatic efforts towards a possible suspension of hostilities. The activity of this process depends on when European leaders return from their winter vacations.

“February may become an active month for diplomats, because, no matter how brutal the war in Ukraine is, in Europe, which is helping us, there are winter vacations. Therefore, approximately in mid-February, the diplomatic process will activate. Currently, the state of the five developed documents, which guide us towards peace, is ready at 90-95%. But the issues are very difficult, so even one percent will be insufficient to move forward,” he adds.

At the same time, he points out that while diplomatic activity continues, Putin continues to adhere to his own strategy formulated in Alaska.

“At that meeting, Trump came with a proposal for a ceasefire, and Putin reformulated everything and emerged from the meeting with the narrative: we are working on a plan, and then will stop hostilities. Putin deliberately prolongs this process because preparing documents takes months,” the expert emphasizes.

The Kremlin is shaping new threats

“Putin understands this well and uses the opportunities he has received. When he sees that there is progress in the preparation of the plan, he organizes a special operation, for example, an attack on Valdai. This is done to intensify actions from the air against Ukraine, for example, to strike at decision-making centers. That is why threats of possible attacks on the government quarter in Kyiv are sounded,” explains the lieutenant general.

The expert emphasizes that the threat of new airstrikes on Kyiv will persist in 2026, and our allies have not yet made decisions regarding stopping the war, although the activation of negotiations is expected after winter vacations in Europe.

Time for a possible cessation of hostilities

According to the expert, if the process for stopping hostilities advances in February, the document will be handed over to the Russian side, which will likely delay its signing.

“All this will happen until we, together with our allies, if they will support us at the necessary level, stop the advance of the Russians. According to forecasts by international experts, in the second half of the year, the economic situation in Russia will worsen, and Putin will have to make a decision to stop the war,” he notes.

Problems with Ukrainian weapons

There were plans to scale up the Ukrainian cruise missile 'Flamingo', but currently, there are no rumors about its development.

“The 'Flamingo' missile is entirely real. It can cover a great distance and carry a powerful warhead. However, the Russians have air defense and anti-missile systems that our missiles need to pass through. Our drones reach the target 1 in 10 times, while missiles reach it 1 in 5 times,” states the expert.

He explains that the 'Flamingo' missile is too visible to Russian air defense due to its large reflective surface. Work needs to be done to reduce its visibility.

Regarding 'Tomahawk'

After discussing the possibility of providing Ukraine with 'Tomahawk' missiles, the expert calls it part of an informational special operation by the U.S. aimed at pressing Putin.

“Putin quickly got involved and did everything to take this issue off the agenda. I don't think that 'Tomahawk' will help us under current conditions. If we receive dozens of such missiles, it will be a significant step forward,” he clarifies.

Prospects after a possible peace

The expert also notes that if the cessation of hostilities occurs in the fall or at the end of 2026, Russia will likely postpone the beginning of a new phase of the war. Everything will depend on how quickly Ukraine overcomes corruption and strengthens its defensive potential.

“If we do not fulfill strategic tasks, it may lead to new problems during the next phase of the war,” he warns.

Now, as diplomatic efforts are activating amid the ongoing war, it is important to stay in touch with allies and support strategies that can help Ukraine. Prospects for peace may open up in the coming months, but it is necessary to be prepared for various scenarios of events. A successful conclusion of the war will require not only military efforts but also efforts to restore the economy and combat corruption.