The ban on nicotine pouches threatens the budget: losses may reach 2 billion UAH.

According to ТСН: Economist Oleksiy Kush commented on the issues of excise regulation being considered by parliament. According to him, amid the war, the state needs to reassess its fiscal policy, focusing on profitable sectors such as gambling and financial businesses, as well as tobacco and alcohol producers. However, the expert believes that the Verkhovna Rada is making decisions that could undermine the excise system by introducing VAT for individual entrepreneurs.

“A noble goal is allegedly declared - to reduce the harmful impact on the health of Ukrainians. But against the backdrop of the free sale of cigarettes, such artificial restrictions on nicotine pouches will only lead to a reorientation of consumers to the shadow, illegal pouch market, where nicotine content is unregulated and where pouches with dosages up to 150-200 mg circulate, which is 10 times more than on the legal market,” Kush emphasized.

The expert also pointed out the threat of increasing availability of illegal pouches for young people.

“The black market means uncontrolled access to these products for children and adolescents, who have similarly gained access to 'banned' electronic cigarettes, as Kantar's research shows. Furthermore, this could lead to a transition of consumers from pouches to cigarettes, which are much more harmful,” he added.

Kush does not rule out that such regulatory decisions may serve the interests of large cigarette manufacturers. According to the budgetary expertise of bill No. 14110-D, direct budget losses could amount to about 0.8 billion UAH per year (at 2025 prices).

Business forecasts indicate that the total volume of losses in 2026 may reach 1.5 billion UAH, and in subsequent years - at least 2 billion UAH per year.

The expert warns that in such a situation, the state risks losing legal tax revenues and will be forced to compensate for this with additional fiscal pressure on entrepreneurs, which is a dubious strategy in wartime.

“It's like fighting alcoholism by introducing one-degree vodka,” Kush summarized.

The situation with excise regulation remains complicated and fraught with risks for the state and consumers. Political decisions made today could significantly impact the economy and taxation schemes in Ukraine. Experts call for an open dialogue between the authorities and business to find fair solutions in this challenging situation.