Winter peak: the wheat market prepares for peak prices.

Wheat exports from Ukraine may reach 1 million tons

There remains significant interest among market participants and analysts in trends in export and prices for Ukrainian wheat. According to a report by the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the framework of the Agricultural Council, January and February are peak months for grain trading when prices typically reach their highest levels.

Ukrainian traders are showing a stable pace of export, although importers remain somewhat cautious.

'As of January 13, Ukraine exported nearly 400 thousand tons of wheat, and according to our forecasts, by the end of February, this figure could reach 1 million tons. Even under global restrictions and quotas affecting supply, we observe a stable export potential,' reported PUSK.

One of the key factors affecting prices is the export restrictions on Russian wheat. Analysts state that traders are gradually increasing offers. The estimated price of wheat at Ukrainian ports ranges between $220–$225 per ton.

'January and February are always the period when the highest price level for wheat is observed. It is predicted that for third class wheat the export price may reach $230 per ton,' experts add.

Analysts also point to the importance of local factors in supporting prices. A memorandum between the Ukrainian Grain Association and the Ministry of Agriculture limits wheat export volumes at 16.2 million tons to avoid sharp changes in the domestic market.

'Competition between millers and exporters continues to stimulate the local market. This contributes to stable price growth, especially in winter. Conditional prices for 2-3 class wheat in the domestic market range from 9500 to 10300 UAH/ton, depending on the volume of batches. It is now important to closely monitor global trends and quotas to optimally allocate export volumes,' PUSK adds.

The next two months may be the optimal Time for selling wheat.

'The market is likely to continue to rise until the end of winter. However, be prepared for possible fluctuations in March-April when information about the new harvest begins to arrive,' analysts conclude.