Why Lukashenko Fears a Repeat of 2020: Belarusians Reject Russia's War.

Yuriy Hubarevych's Take on the War in Ukraine

According to UATV: On June 5, 2023, during a broadcast on the FREEДОМ TV channel, Yuriy Hubarevych shared his analysis that the people of Belarus do not support Russia's war against Ukraine. He emphasized that Belarusians are aware of their right to form their own opinions, which, as he put it,

“are absolutely not in favor of Russia's military actions”

The Political Landscape in Belarus

Hubarevych also noted that Lukashenko is worried about a resurgence of the 2020 protests, when thousands of Belarusians took to the streets to oppose presidential election fraud. Those events marked a pivotal moment in the nation's history, and according to Hubarevych,

“the situation is escalating precisely because of Lukashenko's own actions”

Additionally, Hubarevych highlighted Lukashenko's limited ability to build up military strength. He stated that

“it is impossible to develop any significant military capacity on Belarusian territory using only domestic resources”

Overall, Hubarevych's remarks shed light on the complex political reality in Belarus, where the public opposes military aggression while the leadership struggles to maintain control under challenging circumstances.

His observations underscore the growing tension in Belarusian society, which is increasingly distancing itself from Russia's aggressive policies. The 2020 protests left a deep mark on the public consciousness, and Lukashenko's fear of another wave of mass demonstrations could push the country into greater political isolation. Given Belarus's dependence on Russia, future developments may carry serious consequences for both domestic affairs and relations with neighboring states.