British Intelligence Reported on New Russian Strategy in the Black Sea.

As a result of the loss of the Tu-22M3 in April this year, Russian forces have become more cautious in their strike operations in the Black Sea. According to the UK Ministry of Defense, the Russians might have mistakenly hit the civilian cargo vessel Aya out of fear of being targeted by Ukrainian missiles.

Pilots misidentified the Aya vessel due to haste to leave the area after launching a missile for fear of being attacked by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile.

The Aya vessel was attacked by a missile in the Black Sea on September 11 when it was sailing south from Odessa to Egypt with 26,000 tons of grain. It was likely an AS-4 Kitchen (Kh-22) anti-ship missile launched by a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber operating in the area. Fortunately, the lack of a detonation prevented serious damage.

“It is unlikely that the Aya vessel was the target for this strike and was possibly attacked due to incompetence of Russian pilots using outdated armaments. Russia has consistently attacked targets along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, including Snake Island, in an attempt to disrupt export activities and degrade military operations in the region,” intelligence officials report.

Overall, the Kh-22 missile has usually not been successful in the war in Ukraine. The launch of a supersonic missile on an incorrect course and possibly at the wrong target in international waters indicates incompetence and irresponsible use of aviation, the UK Ministry of Defense reports.

Recall that Russian forces attacked a civilian wheat-carrying vessel for Egypt in the Black Sea shortly after it exited Ukrainian territorial waters.

At that Time, the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the attack by Russian forces on a vessel in the Black Sea, calling it an “unprecedented escalation of Russia's actions in its illegal war against Ukraine.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres also condemns any attacks on civilians and infrastructure, including the most recent strikes.