Bread prices may rise by 20% by 2026: forecast from the bakers' association.

According to ТСН: In 2026, prices for bread made from simple recipes are likely to remain fairly stable, however, some types of products may experience significant increases in cost. For example, the price of certain types of bread may rise by more than 20%.

Forecasts and influencing factors

President of the All-Ukrainian Bakers' Association (VAP) Yuriy Duchenko believes that according to the most optimistic forecasts, the price of bread may increase by 10-15%. However, if the situation worsens due to hostilities or serious problems arise with energy supply, the price increase may exceed 20%.

“According to VAP's forecasts, in 2026, bread made from simple recipes will remain relatively stable in price, while other products may become more expensive by 10-15%, and in case of a worsening situation — by more than 20%,” Duchenko noted.

Electricity supply difficulties

He also added that the situation regarding price increases remains unpredictable. Limitations on electricity supply for bread factories due to Russian shelling are one of the decisive factors.

“In most regions of Ukraine, bakeries producing bread for mass consumption are formally classified as critical infrastructure objects. However, in practice, this status often does not guarantee uninterrupted power supply,” explains the head of the bakers' association.

Duchenko also noted that some bakeries and bread factories are not included in the approved lists and are facing their own problems. Consumption limits do not account for the technological cycle, complicating the situation, especially in regions with limited generation and overloaded networks.

Impact of outages on product range

Power outages are already leading to a reduction in the product range. Bakeries are forced to stop producing some complex and profitable products due to their inability to adhere to required technologies.

“Even with available voltage, limits do not allow for simultaneous oven, dough mixer, cooling, and packaging operations. Given the current conditions, the risks of supply disruptions are increasing, especially for products with a short shelf life, which poses a threat to food security,” warns the head of VAP.

The expert also noted that the cost of bread is influenced not only by power outages but also by fluctuations in raw material prices, increased logistics costs, and labor payment. This forces producers to include additional costs in the production price, which may lead to an increase in the prices of certain types of bread.

Previously, there was information about the price situation of dairy products in Ukraine.

Thus, the stability of bread prices in 2026 remains in question, as many factors can influence the market. The situation with energy supply and hostilities is particularly important, as it can significantly complicate the production and supply of bread products. Considering all these factors will help predict the further development of the situation.”