The Oreshnik Cannot Reach Kyiv: Why the Missile from Belarus Does Not Threaten the Capital.

According to ТСН: The Kremlin's statement regarding the deployment of the latest medium-range ballistic missile 'Oreshnik' in Belarus has sparked a wave of discussions on social media. Several sources published panic forecasts, claiming that the missile would reach Kyiv in 1 minute and 41 seconds, and Lviv in 2 minutes. However, experts note that such estimates are absolutely implausible and indicate technical incompetence.

The main error in these calculations lies in the simplified division of distance by the missile's maximum speed. The 'Oreshnik' is a ballistic missile that travels along a high-curvature trajectory. Additionally, as a two-stage solid-fuel missile, it has not only a maximum but also a minimum flight range.

According to data from the official briefing of Ukrainian intelligence, the parameters of the 'Oreshnik' missile are as follows:

• minimum range — 700 km;

• maximum range — 5500 km.

The distance from the furthest point in Belarus to Kyiv is only 660 km. This means that the Ukrainian capital falls into the 'dead zone' — the missile will not be able to complete all its stages and target in such a short distance.

How This Weapon Works

The 'Oreshnik' is essentially a modern version of the Soviet RSD-10 'Pioneer' missile. In solid-fuel engines, it is impossible to adjust thrust in the way that is done with liquid-fuel engines. They have to execute the set program.

The sequence of stages of operation, their separation in rarefied layers of the atmosphere, and the placement of warheads require time and distance. If an attempt is made to launch such a missile over a distance of less than 700 km, it will not be able to complete the flight cycle and reach the necessary parameters for hitting the target.

How Many 'Oreshniks' Are Left with Putin

Despite the Kremlin's threats, the actual number of this weapon in the RF arsenal is significantly lower. According to Ukrainian intelligence, currently the Russians have only one operational complex:

• The first — was used during an experimental shelling of Ukraine.

• The second — was destroyed by Ukrainian intelligence services in the summer of 2023.

• The third — is the only one left at the disposal of the occupiers.

It should be noted that Russia has completed the deployment of 'Oreshnik' ballistic missiles on the territory of Belarus. Ukraine has complete information about their placement and has shared this data with Western partners for threat assessment.

President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the missiles pose a potential danger to many European countries, and there is no effective way to destroy them with conventional drones. Therefore, the main method of counteraction remains economic pressure on production and the imposition of sanctions.

In the current situation, it is important for Ukraine and its partners to be prepared to respond to any changes in the security situation. Monitoring the presence and use of such types of weapons is a priority for Ukrainian intelligence services to minimize risks to national security.