ISW explains how Putin uses the escalation between the US and Europe.

The Kremlin is preparing for war with the West and is using the escalation between the US and Europe

Russia continues to spread the narrative that EU countries and Ukraine are trying to provoke war and worsen the situation. Analysts believe that this is merely an attempt by the Kremlin to avoid war with the West, for which it has been preparing for a long Time.

Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry, expressed her reaction to the EU summit in Brussels. She claims that Europe’s spending on defense and support for Ukraine only fuels the escalation of the conflict with Russia. Zakharova calls the EU a 'militarized alliance' that is trying to deliver a strategic defeat to Russia through 'dangerous geopolitical games' and prolonging negotiations on ending the war.

“European spending on defense and support for Ukraine deliberately fuels the escalation that is actually being planned in the North Atlantic. The European Union has already become a militarized alliance that needs Russia for its strategic defeat, and it is starting to act not based on our conditions.”

Analysts from ISW criticize Zakharova but acknowledge that her comments are a result of Russia’s long-term efforts to militarize society.

The Role of Belarus

Analysts also assert that Russia is increasing its influence in Belarus and expanding its military forces there, which may be preparation for war with NATO.

For example, in the summer of 2021, Russia deployed several S-300 air defense systems in Belarus, and in September of that same year, its military presence was further strengthened by the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation.

Analysts emphasize that Russia and Belarus constantly use the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State to strengthen their military cooperation. In November 2024, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine and expanded its 'nuclear umbrella' over Belarus.

Restructuring of the Armed Forces and Development of Hybrid Warfare

ISW notes that Russia is restructuring its Armed Forces, developing its military industry, and hybrid warfare. This indicates Moscow’s efforts to prepare for and possibly initiate future conflict with the West.

The head of German intelligence revealed Putin's true intentions regarding the world order.