Experts Named Three Scenarios for Power Outages Until the End of Winter: What to Expect for Ukrainians.

According to ТСН: The situation in Ukraine's energy system remains complex, and citizens should be prepared for the possibility that power outage schedules may remain in place until the end of winter. Experts, along with the government, are discussing three main scenarios for enduring the heating season, which depend on the intensity of enemy attacks.

Possible Scenarios for the Energy System

Energy expert from the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Stanislav Ignetiev, noted that there are three main scenarios for events. The most optimistic scenario could be realized if massive shelling of power grid facilities is halted.

“Imagine something unreal happening, and our facilities stop being shelled. We can quickly restore the transmission facilities that the enemy has targeted recently. Relatively quickly — within a month,” said Ignetiev.

In this case, the power deficit will be covered by domestic generation and imports from Europe (up to 2.3 GW-h), allowing for power outage schedules of only 2-3 hours in the morning and evening.

Average Forecast and Its Consequences

The weighted average forecast predicts that regular attacks from the Russian Federation will continue, some of which will be intercepted by air defense, but hits cannot be avoided.

“We will live under schedules similar to those we followed in the last months before the New Year. This means 4-5 hours without electricity, 3-4 hours with electricity, and we alternate like this. This weighted average scenario is the most likely,” emphasized the analyst.

Under this scenario, energy specialists will have to use emergency power switching schemes.

The Worst-Case Scenario

Unfortunately, the worst scenario involves massive enemy attacks every 5 days, which poses a threat to the electricity transmission system. In this case, large cities, including Kyiv, may find themselves in a state of “energy islands.”

“We will be satisfied with only 20% of the electrical energy demand. Accordingly, each subscriber will have only 20% of electricity supply per day. This means 3-4 hours a day, or up to 6 hours if there aren’t strong frosts,” warned Stanislav Ignetiev.

Electricity will only be turned on twice a day for short intervals.

It is also worth noting that recent attacks by the Russian army on energy facilities in Ukraine have led to the implementation of hourly power outage schedules in most regions. According to Ukrenergo, outages have been recorded in the Zaporizhia region, while restoration of damaged equipment is ongoing in the Kyiv and Odesa regions. The situation is complicated by bad weather: due to strong winds and snow, 27 settlements in Ivano-Frankivsk region remain without electricity.

In conditions where the energy balance of the country depends on external factors, it is important for all of us to maintain information awareness and practice emergency energy conservation. Discussing these scenarios with experts highlights the need to adapt to possible difficulties that may arise in the near future.