Warm Winters in Ukraine: How Climate Change Threatens Harvests and Increases Pests.

According to ТСН: Ukraine is experiencing a trend towards warmer winters, which significantly impacts yield and pest presence. According to data from the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, the average winter temperature has risen from -3°C in the early 2000s to around +2°C in forecasts for 2023-2025.

Dmytro Liudvenko, a senior research fellow at the Department of Agricultural Production Economics of the National Scientific Center "Institute of Agricultural Economics", noted that warming opens up new prospects for farmers due to a longer growing season and the possibility of cultivating heat-loving crops, such as cotton. However, the negative consequences are much greater. Warm winters have stopped acting as a natural regulator for fields, leading to a decrease in soil moisture levels. In the Kyiv region, for example, the volume of winter precipitation has decreased almost threefold — from 100 mm to 30-35 mm.

This, in turn, has contributed to the increased survival of pests.

"Under such weather conditions, the risk of damage to the root system during sharp temperature fluctuations increases, and the life cycle of pests — such as the Colorado potato beetle, silk moth, and others that do not die due to mild winters — extends," Liudvenko stated.

The situation is compounded by spring droughts and irregular precipitation. Partial solutions may include artificial irrigation, but the existing infrastructure is largely destroyed or located in temporarily occupied territories. This deficit is felt most acutely in the southern regions.

"A telling example of the combined impact of war and climate change is the southern regions of Ukraine — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk. The destruction of the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Station, which affected irrigation over 0.6 million hectares, and the sharp warming have led to yield losses of 30-50% over 1.2 million hectares," added Oleksandr Zakharuk, head of the Investment and Material and Technical Support Department of the National Scientific Center "Institute of Agricultural Economics".

Farmers are beginning to seek solutions to this situation by switching to early-maturing varieties and crops that better withstand drought. According to specialists from the National Scientific Center "Institute of Agricultural Economics", Ukraine's agricultural policy is already functioning as a risk management system.

It is also worth noting that a fox — a common predator often seen along roads, hunting small rodents and avoiding cameras — has been spotted again in the Chornobyl Reserve.

This set of climatic and economic changes indicates that Ukraine's agricultural sector is facing serious challenges. Farmers must adapt to new conditions and seek effective solutions for risk management to ensure stability in yields and food security for the country. Currently, the situation requires a comprehensive approach and cooperation among all participants in the agricultural process, as the problems previously encountered may become even more serious in the future.