Analysts Forecast Stable Dollar Rate of 43–43.3 UAH Through February 2026.

Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast for 2026

According to TSN.ua: Financial experts anticipate that the US dollar's exchange rate on Ukraine's interbank market will hold steady within a range of 43 to 43.3 Ukrainian hryvnias (UAH) until the end of February 2026. This forecast comes amidst a period of economic uncertainty for the country. However, potential fluctuations could arise due to the tax period and the scheduled repayment of foreign currency bonds, specifically a $450 million domestic government bond (OVDP) due on February 26th.

Currently, the interbank rate for the dollar fluctuates between 43 and 43.3 UAH. Meanwhile, the cash market rate is typically 20–30 kopiyks higher than the interbank rate. Overall, the general exchange rate for the dollar in Ukraine stands at 42.5–43.5 UAH, while the euro trades at 50.5–51.5 UAH.

Factors Influencing the Currency Exchange Rate

Analyst Andriy Zablovsky notes that the dollar's interbank rate is expected to remain within the stated range. Yet, a traditional factor that usually weakens the hryvnia in February—currency sales by farmers ahead of the planting season—is currently inactive, as pointed out by Andriy Shevchyshyn. On the other hand, Oleg Pendzin highlights a broader economic consideration:

"A cheaper hryvnia leads to more expensive imported goods, but it also increases state budget revenues from taxes." - Oleg Pendzin

The situation on the currency market remains under control for now, but shifts in the external economic environment and domestic factors could influence future developments. Analysts continue to monitor trends closely and are prepared to respond to changes in the economic situation.

While the dollar forecast points to stability, events on international markets and internal economic drivers could still lead to unforeseen changes. The bond repayment at the end of February may also affect currency supply and demand, necessitating careful observation by analysts and state authorities.