Expert Forecast for the U.S. Dollar in March 2026: Key Factors and Predictions.

Currency Exchange Rate Forecast for Ukraine in March 2026

According to TSN.ua: According to expert analysis, the U.S. Dollar is projected to trade between 42.5 and 43.7 Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) in March 2026, while the Euro is expected to range from 50.5 to 52 UAH. The primary factors influencing the currency market are expected to be electricity supply constraints and inflationary pressures. These forecasts come amidst a challenging period for Ukraine's post-war economic recovery.

Taras Lesoviy noted that 'this allows us to expect the Dollar exchange rate in March to fluctuate within the range of 42.5-43.7 UAH, and the Euro within 50.5-52 UAH, with the most important point being: without systemic distortions.'

Supporting economic projections indicate Ukraine's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be 1.8%, with an inflation rate reaching 7.5%. These macroeconomic indicators are also likely to exert influence on the stability of the national currency.

Monetary Policy Committee Meeting at the NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has scheduled a meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee for March 19. Taras Lesoviy believes that 'this is precisely why we forecast that at the next NBU Monetary Committee meeting, scheduled for March 19, the regulator may maintain the discount rate at 15%, which would be a completely logical and balanced decision.'

Consequently, the predicted currency fluctuations for March 2026 suggest the Ukrainian economy continues to face pressure from both external and internal factors. Decisions by the central bank regarding interest rates, against a backdrop of modest GDP growth and persistent inflation, will be a critical tool for managing economic stability and influencing the country's financial resilience.