IEA: New US sanctions could undermine Russian energy exports.

US sanctions may harm energy exports from Russia

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the recently announced US sanctions could seriously damage energy exports from Russia. The US has blacklisted tankers that carried over a fifth of Russia's maritime oil flows.

According to Bloomberg, 160 tankers that fell under American sanctions carried over 1.6 million barrels of Russian oil per day in 2024. This accounts for about 22% of the country's maritime exports, according to the IEA report. The agency stated that it would update its forecast for oil flows from Russia depending on the situation's development.

Previous rounds of sanctions against the shadow fleet that Russia uses to transport its oil have been highly effective. They reduced the activity of sanctioned tankers by 90%, the IEA reported.

The IEA added that the full impact of the new US sanctions on Russia's ability to extract and transport oil is still unclear, although they are considered a serious step.

According to the IEA, the forecast for oil production in Russia this year is 9.4 million barrels per day, slightly above last year's level (9.3 million barrels per day). According to the IEA, Russia produced 9.28 million barrels per day in December of last year, exceeding the targeted level set by the OPEC+ agreement by 300,000 barrels per day.

The US imposed the toughest sanctions against the Russian oil industry before the presidential transition. In addition to tankers, the US also imposed sanctions against the largest Russian companies operating in the oil sector, such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas. Russia has already stated that it will look for opportunities to continue supplying its oil and mitigate the impact of the new restrictions.