The National Bank revised its inflation forecast: what to expect for Ukrainians in the coming months.

The National Bank of Ukraine has reviewed its forecast regarding macroeconomic indicators and anticipates that inflation will reach 8.4% by the end of 2025. The changes in the forecast were due to the impact of internal and external economic factors on Ukraine.

In 2024, inflation exceeded expectations and amounted to 12% instead of the anticipated 9.7%. This increase is explained by temporary factors such as poor harvests and rising prices for essential goods.

'High rates of price growth are largely determined by temporary factors, particularly the effects of last year's poor harvests. At the same time, fundamental price pressures are also increasing,' - reported the National Bank.

Core inflation has accelerated to 10.7%, indicating an increase in service prices. Experts attribute this to rising production costs and wages, as well as the strengthening of the hryvnia against the euro.

The National Bank's forecast anticipates further inflation growth in early 2025 with subsequent slow decline. The bank hopes that by 2026 inflation will return to the target of 5%. However, the bank is concerned about the transition of inflation to double-digit levels, as this could affect the expectations of the population and businesses.

Additionally, it was previously reported that banks have improved the quality of their loan portfolios.