Russia is preparing a new offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv: deadlines named.

According to ТСН: Russia is preparing for a new significant escalation, trying to seize as much territory as possible before potential negotiations.

This is indicated by an analysis from the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

Strategy of 'maximum pressure'

Putin has openly stated that he does not plan to abandon the main goals of the so-called 'special military operation'. On the contrary, the Kremlin intends to expand the area of hostilities. The key objective is to increase pressure on Ukraine and the West in order to dictate terms during potential negotiations.

Offensive in 2026: new directions and 'buffer zones'

Analysts report that the head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Gerasimov, has already defined priorities for this year:

• Sumy and Kharkiv: expanding the so-called 'buffer zone'. The enemy will try to push the front line deeper into Ukrainian territories.

• Donetsk: instead of heavy frontal assaults on fortified areas, Russia is preparing a flanking strike on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the southwest direction.

• Zaporizhia: continuing offensive actions with the aim of capturing important logistical hubs.

Pace of advance

Analysts calculated the real speed of advance of the Russian occupation forces. At the current pace, it will take Russia about 1190 days to completely capture four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson).

Full occupation of these regions at this pace could occur only by April 2029.

Emphasis on drones: formation of special brigades

For breaking through the front, Russia is creating new military formations. In particular, the formation of the 50th brigade of unmanned systems (UBS) is to be completed by December 1, 2026.

• Manpower: 7,000 people.

• Motivation: soldiers are promised bonuses of +350%, which places them on par with the Russian Special Operations Forces. This underscores that drones are becoming the main tool of the Russian offensive.

Provocation to disrupt negotiations

The Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation is already preparing the informational basis for destabilization. Analysts warn of the possibility of massive provocation with a high number of casualties. The Kremlin intends to blame Ukraine and use this as a pretext to disrupt the negotiation process if it does not align with their scenario.

Against the backdrop of these events, it is important to monitor the development of the situation on the front and the potential reactions of the international community. It remains unclear how these Russian plans may affect the negotiation process and the restoration of peace in the region. A suppressed society and economic difficulties could become likely consequences of further aggressive actions.