Most Poles do not believe in peace for Ukraine by 2026: survey data.

According to ТСН: The majority of Poland's population doubts the possibility of achieving peace in Ukraine next year, despite active international diplomatic efforts. According to a survey by IBRiS, 59.6% of respondents believe that the war will not end before 2026.

Key findings of the study

Only 21.6% of respondents believe in a quick end to the conflict, while 18.9% could not determine their position. The highest level of skepticism is observed among young people (84% of Generation Z) and those with higher education (70%). Interestingly, doubts about the end of the war are expressed by both supporters of the government (64%) and the opposition (59%).

It has been reported that despite the mediation efforts of the U.S. president, which are considered "constructive", there are no real breakthroughs. Kyiv is negotiating with European partners regarding security guarantees, while the Kremlin rejects these proposals as "unconstructive". The main contentious issues remain unchanged: the status of occupied territories, Ukraine's NATO membership, and future security guarantees. Meanwhile, Russia continues its massive attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Expert opinions

Former heads of the Polish National Security Bureau indicate that the survey results reflect a realistic perception of the threat.

"This survey shows that we are building resilience against Russian propaganda. Poles know that Putin will sign anything but will not adhere to agreements. We remember the times of the Cold War: Russia imposes on the West an ideology of pacifism to disarm us while arming itself to the teeth," said General Roman Polko, former commander of GROM.

General Stanisław Koziej also expressed the view that Russia shows no intention of achieving genuine peace.

"It still aims to achieve its initial aggressive goals. People rightly interpret reality. And 19% of those who are undecided is normal, as there is always an element of unpredictability and fate in war," the general noted.

Experts conclude that Polish society demonstrates "common sense", not succumbing to the illusion of quick peace, which is critically important for further strengthening the country's defense capabilities.

It should also be noted that the expectations of Ukrainians regarding the end of the war are becoming increasingly restrained: only 10% believe in peace at the beginning of 2026. At the same time, the level of societal resilience remains consistently high, and most citizens are willing to endure the war for as long as necessary.