Politico on 2026 for Ukraine: Is Peace Possible with Russia?.

According to ТСН: Last year, Politico tried to predict the future, sharing both accurate and inaccurate forecasts. For example, Donald Trump was able to end the war in Gaza, while peace in Ukraine looks increasingly less realistic.

Forecasts for 2026

A new article from the publication discusses what 2026 will be like for Ukraine. Despite numerous claims that Western sanctions are severely impacting the Russian economy and forcing the Kremlin to compromise, Putin remains completely unyielding in his demands.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces internal political constraints that affect his ability to achieve an agreement.

Possibility of an Agreement?

Trump often believes that an agreement is possible. After a meeting with Putin in Alaska, he noted that the latter seeks peace:

“I think he wants to make a deal with me. Do you understand that? No matter how crazy it sounds,”

However, the stubbornness of the Russian leader sometimes frustrates Trump, causing him to doubt Putin's honesty, which reportedly Melania Trump also believes.

Benefits of Continuing the Conflict

A prolonged conflict is advantageous for Putin, as it increases tension in European countries facing financial difficulties and risks fracturing NATO. It also bolsters Xi Jinping's support, who is contemplating his plans regarding Taiwan.

Sociologist Ella Paneyakh noted that Putin's regime would be under threat in case of a rapid end to the war:

“This will provoke fierce and intense competition for dwindling resources.”

Chances for Ukraine

Taking into account the shortage of human resources in Ukraine, there is a likelihood of a breakthrough along the front line. Putin may hope to gain more by continuing the conflict, but this poses risks for Ukraine related to limiting the size of its post-war army.

On the other hand, the Russian economy faces high interest rates, labor shortages, and rising borrowing costs. Economic difficulties in Russia may exacerbate the situation.

Ukraine also risks finding itself in a difficult position during the winter months due to ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and reduced funding from European partners.

Historian Serhiy Plokhiy recently expressed the opinion that Russia will continue the war, and Ukrainians should forget even about a bad peace.

The situation in Ukraine and around it remains tense. The prospects for achieving peace seem murky, and internal political factors in the country could significantly influence future events. The world, particularly European partners, continues to closely monitor the developments, as it has broad implications for regional security and the economy.