Putin's War Will Last Longer Than World War II: What It Means for Ukraine.

Putin and His Military Campaign

According to ТСН: In 2026, Putin will mark 26 years in power, placing his rule on par with the most famous Russian monarchs and leaders of the Soviet era. On January 12, the full-scale aggression against Ukraine will reach 1418 days — the same duration as the German-Soviet war, which laid the foundations of the modern Russian regime.

As The Times points out, this comparison highlights the failure of Putin's military machine. Stalin's army, in a similar period, advanced from the Volga to Berlin, defeating the enemy, while Putin's troops have effectively been stuck near Pokrovsk, moving just a few dozen kilometers since February 2022. For a dictator who seeks military glory of the past, the low effectiveness of his army is a severe blow, even though he tries to present everything as going according to plan to avoid showing weakness.

Internal Problems of the Regime

The editor-in-chief of the investigative project 'The Project', Roman Badunin, notes that Putin is personally involved in military planning but is trapped in his own 'echo chamber'. There are no more critically-minded people around him; instead, only 'comfortable' officials remain, supporting inadequate conspiracy theories about Western 'viruses' and 'robots'.

Analysts and opposition figures emphasize that for Putin, territorial seizure is merely a tool, not the primary goal. His true desire is the complete elimination of Ukraine's independence and the removal of the pro-Western government. Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov believes that Putin will not agree to any compromises, as he views the loss of control over Kyiv as a personal defeat.

Internal Opposition Movement

Kasyanov also expressed doubts about the possible success of Donald Trump's administration's efforts to end the war, believing that Washington mistakenly perceives the conflict as a personal confrontation between two leaders who can be reconciled at the negotiating table. Instead, Putin is waging a war to destroy Ukrainian statehood, and any diplomatic illusions from the West only help him buy time and use residual resources to continue aggression.

It is known that one of the closest officials to the Russian president, Dmitry Kozak, openly opposed Putin's will on the second day after the start of the full-scale invasion. According to The New York Times, Kozak refused to comply with the Kremlin's demand for Ukraine's complete capitulation at the negotiations. He emphasized that he does not understand the strategic goal of the war and is ready for arrest or even execution but will not follow the order. This conversation was heard by other representatives of the Kremlin elite.

It was previously reported that Putin is doing everything possible to avoid a peace process and continue the war, however, in a geopolitical sense, the Russian Federation has already suffered a defeat.

The situation in Ukraine remains tense amid the prolonged conflict, and the internal problems of Putin's regime, particularly the lack of critical thinking in his circle, may significantly influence his strategies. While Western countries continue to ponder ways to peace negotiations, the danger of escalation of the war remains high, and any new initiatives may be perceived by the Kremlin as a sign of weakness.