Ukrainian Official: Russian Forces Would Need 18 Months to Seize 6,000 km².

Assessment of Russian Military Capabilities

According to TSN.ua: Deputy Head of the President's Office, Pavlo Palisa, has provided an analysis of the Russian military's capacity to seize Ukrainian territory. He stated that for Russian troops to capture the 6,000 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast currently under Ukrainian control, it would take them approximately a year and a half. Palisa emphasized that it would be 'extremely difficult for them to do this' and that the process would not be 'as quick as they would like.'

The Situation on the Front Line

As of 2025, Russian forces have occupied less than one percent of Ukraine's total territory, despite deploying over 450,000 of their troops. Palisa further noted,

"Objectively, I do not see opportunities for the Russians to implement these plans in the next six months"

Despite these challenges, Moscow has not abandoned its territorial ambitions in Ukraine, which include capturing major regional centers such as:

• Zaporizhzhia
• Kherson
• Mykolaiv
• Odesa

However, Palisa pointed out that after four years of full-scale invasion, Russia's military campaign is showing signs of stagnation, which could hinder the realization of these ambitious goals. This assessment comes as Western military analysts continue to track the high cost and slow pace of Russia's offensive operations.

Pavlo Palisa's remarks underscore the current operational challenges confronting the Russian military and signal a protracted conflict in Ukraine. Given the lack of significant breakthroughs, Russia's plans may face serious implementation hurdles. This dynamic has significant implications for the future trajectory of the war and for the international community monitoring the ongoing escalation.